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OPERATIONAL SCENARIOS

Margarita Martínez Díaz
Civil Engineering School
OPERATIONAL SCENARIOS was posted on October 29th, 2013 at 8:49 AM EDT

I have problems with the calculation of the final number of scenarios for travel time distribution calculation. I perfectly understand that some of the possible scenarios can be neglected (for example those without sense or those with a probability less than zero). But for example: if I have a probability of a concret incident within a specific demand pattern with non-severe weather and I adjust it dividing by 18, the obtained probability corresponds to these 18 scenarios, so if I remove one, I should remove all. I mean, perhaps I am wrong but I think that the total number of operational scenarios should be multiple of 2 for weather-only, 18 for incident-only and 18 for weather+incident. I have taken a look to the examples in pages 36-35 and 37-38 but I still don´t understand the procedure.

Thanks in advance

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